CFBRAINKFootball Weather
Findings, methodology notes, and the occasional caught mistake, as the analysis grows.
September 2026 Can We Beat the Over/Under? We built a model that guesses a game's final score from team strength and the weather forecast, made it worse on purpose to test if fancier data actually helps (it didn't), and now run it live against this week's real games. September 2026 Hunting for Weather-Influenced Upsets If weather doesn't affect who wins on average, could it still cause the occasional upset? We went looking, found a good lesson in not fooling yourself, and published a fun list of games anyway. September 2026 Does Weather Actually Change College Football? Nearly 18,000 games later: rain and snow really do make it harder to throw, wind messes with kicking a little, and — this is the surprising part — none of it changes who actually wins.